Target group
Experienced data scientists and analytic leads who want to learn to develop scripts in the SAS Forecast Server programming language to build, maintain, and optimize the performance of their forecasting system
Course structure
Introduction
- motivation: the large-scale forecasting problem
- layout of the course
Exploring and Processing Timestamped Data
- accumulation: transforming transactional data into time series data
- handling missing and zero-valued intervals
- aggregation: building the data hierarchy
- two feasible data layouts for SAS Forecast Server
- using the TIMEDATA procedure
- identifying systematic variation in the data
- a SAS toolbox for exploring time series data
The Design of SAS Forecast Server-Based Forecasting Software
- the design of SAS Forecast Server-based forecasting software
- functionality overview: system inputs and automatic model selection
Diagnosing and Selecting Models Automatically
- HPFDIAGNOSE procedure: automatic model specification
- model selection lists and automatic model selection
Creating Custom Models and Managing Model Lists
- creating custom models: HPFxxxSPEC procedures
- creating and managing model selection lists: HPFSELECT procedure
Using the Events Functionality
- creating and managing event variables: HPFEVENTS procedure
- using the HPFEVENTS procedure: extensions and further details
Reconciling Statistical Forecasts
- basic forecast reconciliation using the HPFRECONCILE procedure
- disaggregation methods in forecast reconciliation
Producing, Assessing, and Modifying Forecasts
- honest assessment
- preparing to generate forecasts: accumulation and aggregation of the data
- preparing to generate forecasts: creating custom models, diagnosing models, and building a model selection list
- generating forecasts: automatic model selection and forecast outputs
- assessing system accuracy and generating reconciled forecasts
Rolling the Forecasting System Forward in Time
- forecasting by exception
- assessing model degradation
- handling data updates and structural changes
